The population fell last year in seven European Union (EU) member states, and the sharpest decline was in Latvia (down 0.6%, or 11.1 thousand people), according to the information review “Demography” published by the Central Statistical Bureau.

In Poland, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Italy the population decline in 2023 was less than 0.5%. The largest population increases, meanwhile, were in Malta (3.9%), Luxembourg (1.7%), and Ireland and Cyprus (1.4% each).

In recent years Latvia's population has fallen mainly as a result of negative natural increase, with deaths outnumbering births. Although net migration was positive in 2023 (more people immigrated than emigrated), negative natural increase (-0.7%) meant that the population declined once again.

Population change and the factors affecting it in EU member states in 2023
(per 1000 population)

Eurostat data: DEMO_GIND

The number of births per 1000 population is falling faster than the EU average

As recently as 2021, the number of births per 1000 population in Latvia matched the EU average, but it has continued to fall year after year. In 2023 there were 8.2 births per 1000 population in the EU, but only 7.7 in Latvia. Over the past 10 years Latvia's highest figure was recorded in 2016, when the number of births rose and was even the fourth best among EU member states.

In 2023, 14 490 children were born in Latvia – 1 464, or 9.2%, fewer than in 2022, and the lowest figure in the past hundred years.

See in the OSP database:IDS010 and IDK021

The indicator that describes generational replacement is the total fertility rate1. In 2016 it rose to 1.74 in Latvia, the highest level since 1992. Since 2017, however, the fertility rate has fallen, and in 2023 it stood at 1.36 – far short of the number of children (2.1–2.2) needed for normal generational replacement. Across the EU as a whole, the total fertility rate in 2022 was 1.46 (ranging from 1.08 in Malta to 1.79 in France).

Mortality in Latvia remains high

In 2023 there were 2 700, or 8.8%, fewer deaths than in 2022, and 19.0% fewer than the high mortality figure recorded in 2021. Even so, the number of deaths per 1000 population last year was the second highest in the EU after Bulgaria (EU average – 10.8, Latvia – 14.9, Bulgaria – 15.7). This figure has long been one of the highest in the EU.

Deaths per 1000 population

CSP calculation and the official statistics portal: IMV010.

Migration is adding to the population

In 2022 Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine changed the world. In many countries the population grew because of the large-scale emigration of Ukrainian war refugees. Latvia was no exception, and for the second year running the largest group of arrivals came from Ukraine – 25.1% in 2023 (63.6% in 2022), or one in every four immigrants.

The population gain from migration in Latvia was relatively small compared with other EU countries – the lowest was in Poland (0.1 per 1000 population), followed by Slovakia (0.3) and Latvia (1.3). The highest migration per 1000 population in the EU, by contrast, was in Malta (37.9), followed by Portugal (14.7) and Luxembourg (14.0). The EU average was 6.3.

International long-term migration
(thousands)

See in the OSP database: IBE010

A further 43.7% of all arrivals were made up of 8.2 thousand return migrants – Latvian citizens and non-citizens, as well as people who hold another citizenship but were born in Latvia. The number of return migrants fell slightly last year.

1 The total fertility rate is the average number of children who would be born to one woman during her lifetime if fertility in each age group remained at the level of the year of calculation.

Further information is available in the information review “Demography”. The publication brings together information on population size and its changes, sex, age and ethnic composition, the demographic dependency burden, marriages and divorces, births, deaths, long-term migration and citizenship. The most important data are shown over time.