This tax is most likely to affect exporters of iron and steel products and metal structures; these estimates have been made by officials from the Russian Ministry of Economic Development. Russian export companies with a "large carbon footprint" could pay at least €1.1bn annually into the EU budget from the moment that EU governments begin collecting the cross-border carbon tax in full. This official proposal was put forward by the European Commission on 14 July this year.

Based on calculations using 2020 data, this tax will affect Russian exports to EU countries amounting to approximately €7bn, which in weight translates to 16.3 million tonnes of exported products. According to Russian representatives, the new tax will be around 16% of the price of the taxable goods.