According to a report published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO), global consumption of wood-based products will increase by 37% by 2050 if the current scenario remains unchanged.
Consumption of primary wood products – sawn timber, veneer/plywood, particle/fibre board, and wood pulp – is forecast to reach 3.1 billion cubic metres by 2050, states the report “The Global Forest Sector Outlook 2050: Assessing future demand and wood sources for a sustainable economy.”*
The increase in consumption under a bioeconomy scenario would be at least 8% higher when accounting for two modern wood products – mass timber and man-made cellulose fibres – that replace non-renewable materials. Under a scenario involving a more rapid transition to a bioeconomy with a larger share of these two products, the growth in consumption of primary wood products could be 23% higher than under the business-as-usual scenario.
Renewable and climate-friendly
Mass timber and wood products used in construction, man-made cellulose fibre for textile production, and more advanced types of wood for energy are the most significant wood products capable of replacing non-renewable materials on a large scale.
“The forest sector is critical to building a resilient and sustainable economy. Ensuring the sustainability of the forest sector will require innovation and investment, as well as policy coherence,” said Ewald Rametsteiner (Ewald Rametsteiner), Deputy Director of the Forestry Division at FAO.
Demand growth and its impact on the forestry sector
The growth in consumption of wood products – compared to the projected 25% increase in population – will be “driven by higher incomes in emerging economies, which will generate a multiplier effect for consumer goods (such as paper, packaging, clothing and furniture) and construction development,” the report states.
The report notes that in the future, demand for sustainable wood can be met by combining sustainable production in naturally regenerated forests in temperate and boreal zones with planted forests, which are increasingly being developed in the Global South. However, estimates regarding the contribution of specific forest types and regions to global wood supply in 2050 are highly uncertain, the report adds.
This demand will need to be met by increasing productivity through sustainable forest management in existing forests and promoting wood production as part of land restoration programmes and projects. If production from naturally regenerated forests remains stable, at least 33 million hectares of new forests will need to be planted, the report states.
Wood for energy
Future wood energy consumption through to 2050 will be determined by two main trends: the traditional use of fuelwood in the world's two fastest-growing regions – sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia – and the projected role of modern biomass in renewable energy production.
The report states that global consumption of fuelwood derived from forests could range from 2.1 billion to 2.7 billion m³ in 2050, compared to 1.9 billion m³ in 2020, representing an increase of 11 to 42%.
Wood will increasingly account for a share of renewable energy resources in the industrialised world as well. In some regions and situations, measures to restore fuelwood resources may be necessary to meet this demand.
In 2020, 2.3 billion people used wood as their primary energy source for cooking and heating. By 2050, wood fuel will remain a key energy source for many households in emerging market economies, but many scenarios suggest that the rate of consumption growth will slow down.
“Ensuring the availability of sustainable wood fuel for private consumers who rely on this source for economic reasons is a public responsibility, comparable to the provision of electricity or water,” said Thais Linhares-Juvenal (Thais Linhares-Juvenal), Team Leader of the Sustainable Forestry, Value Chains, Innovation and Investment team at the FAO Forestry Division.
* https://www.fao.org/3/cc2265en/cc2265en.pdf