According to a report published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), total consumption of primary wood products will increase by 37% by 2050 if the current scenario remains unchanged.
It is projected that by 2050, the consumption of primary wood products—sawn timber, veneer/plywood, particleboard/fibreboard, and wood pulp—will reach 3.1 billion cubic metres, according to the report “The Global Forest Sector Outlook 2050: Assessing future demand and wood sources for a sustainable economy”.
The increase in consumption under a bioeconomy scenario will be at least 8% higher when two modern wood products—mass timber and artificial cellulose fibres—are taken into account, as these replace non-renewable materials. In a scenario that envisions a faster transition to a bioeconomy with a greater role for these two products, the increase in primary wood product consumption could be 23% higher than in the business-as-usual scenario.
Renewable and climate-friendly
Mass timber and wood products used in construction, artificial cellulose fibre for textile production, and more modern types of wood for energy are the most significant wood products that can replace non-renewable materials on a large scale.
“The forest sector has a crucial role to play in building a resilient and sustainable economy. To ensure the sustainability of the forest sector, innovation, investment and policy coherence will be needed,” said Ewald Rametsteiner, Deputy Director of the FAO Forestry Division.
Demand growth and its impact on the forestry sector
The growth in wood product consumption—compared to the projected 25% increase in population—will be “driven by higher incomes in emerging global regions, which will create a development effect for consumer goods (such as paper, packaging, clothing and furniture) and the construction sector,” the report says. The report states that in the future, the demand for sustainable wood can be met by combining sustainable production in naturally regenerated temperate and boreal forests with planted forests, which are increasingly being grown in the global south. However, estimates of the contribution of specific forest types and regions to the global wood supply in 2050 are highly uncertain, the report adds.
This demand will need to be met by increasing productivity through sustainable forest management in existing forests and by promoting wood production as part of land restoration programmes and projects. If production from naturally regenerated forests remains stable, at least 33 million hectares of new forests will need to be planted, the report says.
Wood for energy
Future wood energy consumption through to 2050 will be determined by two main trends: the traditional use of fuelwood in the two fastest-growing global regions—sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia—and the projected role of modern biomass in renewable energy production.
The report states that in 2050, global consumption of fuelwood derived from forests could range from 2.1 billion to 2.7 billion cubic metres, compared to 1.9 billion cubic metres in 2020, representing an increase of 11 to 42%.
Wood will increasingly represent a share of renewable energy sources in the industrialised world as well. In some regions and situations, measures to replenish fuelwood resources may be needed to meet this demand.
In 2020, 2.3 billion people still relied on wood as their primary energy source for cooking and heating. By 2050, wood fuel will remain a key energy source for many households in emerging economies, but many scenarios suggest that the rate of consumption growth will slow down.
“Ensuring access to sustainable wood fuel for private consumers who rely on this source for economic reasons is a public responsibility, comparable to the provision of electricity or water,” said Thais Linhares-Juvenal, Team Leader for Sustainable Forest Management, Value Chains, Innovation and Investment at the FAO Forestry Division.