Energy analysts believe that even very low temperatures in the coming winter are unlikely to cause a gas shortage in Europe. “Even in the event of a very cold winter, gas storage and additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) together can ensure sufficient supply, because Europe has built up adequate regasification capacity,” states a report by Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS).
In September, the German Gas and Hydrogen Industry Association reported “guaranteed security of supply for the coming winter”.
When direct gas supplies from Russia to Germany were halted after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany sought alternative sources in order to fill its stocks and avoid a gas shortage. Since then, the Germans have increased their alternative import capacity by building liquefied natural gas import infrastructure, and have put emergency plans in place. At present, Europe is negotiating the legal aspects of phasing out Russian oil and gas completely by January 2028.
Having analysed eight possible weather scenarios, the analysts concluded that in none of them “can supply problems be regarded as a significant risk”. ICIS noted that storage volumes would fall to 20% in the most extreme scenario, which assumes a very cold winter — a level last seen in 2018. “However, since next summer will most likely bring a much looser liquefied natural gas (LNG) market thanks to new liquefaction capacity coming on stream, very low storage levels at the end of winter will not be a problem,” the specialists said.
The report also stresses that, given “global LNG dynamics”, wholesale gas prices may differ considerably between very cold and very mild winters. “Cold spells, particularly in December, aggravate an already tight LNG market and cause prices to spike, as Europe and Asia compete for rather limited supplies.
In Germany, less than 80% of gas storage facilities have been filled, but market observers do not foresee any risk to security of supply. “In Europe, including Germany, we meet most of the demand at any time, including in winter, by importing gas from a variety of sources, using storage facilities only partially,” a representative of the German Institute for Economic Research, Franziska Holz (Franziska Holz), told the Science Media Centre (SMC).
“As regards imports, particularly liquefied natural gas from Norway, I do not see any constraints in the coming months that could jeopardise natural gas supply,” Holz stressed. “Despite lower storage levels in Germany, the gas supply situation in Europe and Germany can currently be regarded as stable,” said Jochen Linssen of the German Institute of Climate and Energy Systems.
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