A recent in-depth study, "Preliminary Evidence of Softwood Shortage and Hardwood Availability in EU Regions", has revealed a significant imbalance in wood supply across Europe's forest bioeconomy sector. Researchers from Wageningen University, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) and other institutions analysed data from the European Forest Industry Database (EUFID), uncovering a critical mismatch between wood resources and processing capacity in European countries. The study's findings suggest that, although Europe's forestry infrastructure is extensive, it may not be fully matched to either current or future demand for wood.
EUFID data show considerable wood processing capacity across Europe. Pulp and paper mills have a capacity of 427 million m³, bioenergy plants 102 million m³, and sawmills– 153 million m³. Regional assessments in Germany, Norway and the Czech Republic indicate that the availability of softwood, which is crucial for sawmills and bioenergy, may become insufficient. Specifically, the Czech Republic is short of 3.4 million m³ of softwood, Norway of 1.5 million m³ and Germany of 3.8 million m³. Germany, on the other hand, has a hardwood surplus estimated at 3 million m³. Researchers believe this could encourage an expansion of hardwood processing.
Regional shortfalls in wood supply
In Germany, sawmills and bioenergy plants face a complicated situation. Given the country's processing capacity of roughly 42.1 million m³, Germany has a substantial volume of wood available – 65.2 million m³. The figures point to an overall wood surplus. However, its breakdown shows that sawmills are short of softwood, offset by a predominance of hardwood volumes. The bioenergy sector has a registered nominal capacity of 3.7 million m³, while the total capacity of available wood is 28 million m³. This volume includes a considerable amount of biomass also intended for use in household heating.
Turning to Norway, the study found that the supply of softwood does not match demand in the sawmilling and pulp production sectors. Although total industry capacity is 16 million m³, only 12.1 million m³ of suitable wood is available – meeting just 75% of the industry's needs. The pulp and bioenergy sectors in particular require wider wood procurement regions. Under the current model, which uses a fixed 100 km radius, roughly half of Norway's bioenergy production capacity goes unsupplied. This points to logistical problems linked to the regional siting of plants, especially in the country's remote northern areas.
In the Czech Republic, sawmills have an industrial capacity of 12.4 million m³, but only 9 million m³ of softwood roundwood of the appropriate quality is available. This creates a considerable softwood deficit. Bioenergy also shows a discrepancy – the sector's capacity is 2.5 million m³, while the supply of suitable wood is 8 million m³. This situation, made worse still by the effects of bark beetle infestations in the country's forests, suggests that Czech sawmills may struggle to secure their raw materials as the availability of spruce wood continues to fall.
Difficulties with wood supply point to a need to widen the areas from which resources are sourced
The study's main conclusion is that wood supply is substantially affected by the limited procurement radius. The study used a 100 km procurement radius and found that the bioenergy and pulp sectors often need ever larger supply areas because demand is high. The researchers found that if companies were able to procure wood nationwide, resource shortages would diminish. In Germany, for example, extending the procurement area to the national borders would raise sawmill utilisation to 90%, compared with only 72% within a 100 km radius.
In Germany and the Czech Republic, wood use was most intensive in central regions, particularly around the countries' economic centres, Berlin and Prague, whereas in Norway wood consumption remained concentrated around the Oslo region and was minimal in the country's more remote areas.
The report backs more efficient models for distributing wood resources between regions, along with broader supply strategies and options. The rise in demand for wood driven by the bioeconomy could create a wood deficit if current capacity remains unchanged. Bioenergy, which now competes with traditional wood product segments for raw material, may face intensified competition unless sourcing regions are widened. The researchers note that optimising the supply of wood resources will require considering procurement logistics more broadly. Transport infrastructure will also need to be taken into account, drawing not only on road networks but also on rail and river routes.
The study's authors call for policies that balance bioeconomy growth with the conservation of forest ecosystems, pointing to the long-term effects of forest degradation and stating: "The findings underline that aligning the availability of wood resources with industry capacity is extremely important, particularly as Europe reorients itself towards a bioeconomy. The bioeconomy places the emphasis on renewable and locally sourced materials," adding that accurate resource forecasts are essential to sustainable growth in the sector.
The EUFID model, which could be rolled out more widely, offers policymakers and industry stakeholders a system for the spatial analysis of wood resources, making it possible to develop tailored strategies for managing forest resources. The model could support strategic decisions such as establishing new plants, optimising resources at existing plants and identifying potential areas for forest resource conservation.