In the first quarter of 2025 the European Commission (EC) plans to propose an emissions reduction target for the European Union (EU) for 2040, which will henceforth serve as a reference point on the way to the 2050 goal of net zero emissions. The Commission has already proposed that the target should be a 90% reduction in net emissions compared with 1990. The necessary reform of European Union climate legislation still has to be debated by the member state governments and the European Parliament. The target that is set will form the basis of the EU's 2035 climate targets, which under the Paris Agreement must be submitted by September 2025.

What does the EU's 2040 climate target involve?

The European Union's emissions reduction target for 2040 will be a legally binding amendment to the European Climate Law, which was agreed back in 2021 — that is, the EU's goal is to cut net emissions by 55% by 2030 and to reach net zero emissions in 2050.

The amendment to the legislation is expected to go through the so-called "co-decision procedure", in which the European Parliament and the governments of the EU member states debate the text of the amendment and then agree the final wording at meetings known as trilogues. Since the forthcoming decision is politically significant, EU leaders may also have their say in the European Council, as happened in connection with the 2030 target. Any decision taken in the European Council will require unanimity among the EU states, which could either speed up the negotiations or, quite the opposite, create tension if the member states fail to agree.

How ambitious is the intended 2040 climate target?

In February 2024 the European Commission proposed that the target should be a 90% reduction in net emissions by 2040, based on 1990 levels. The proposal was grounded in a recommendation by the EU's independent Scientific Advisory Board that this target be set at 90-95%.

The European Commission is expected to stick to this target, since the 90% target is included in the European Union's agenda-setting programme the "Competitiveness Compass" and the "Clean Industrial Deal". According to the EC, such a target would allow the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, provide predictability, boost competitiveness and enable Europe to take the lead in developing clean technologies.

The "net" element of the target refers to the total volume of emissions entering the atmosphere, or gross emissions, from which human activity and natural effects that remove them are subtracted. Such carbon removal can be natural — when trees, soil and other natural objects (or processes) "take up" carbon from the atmosphere — or technical, that is permanent removal, when carbon is separated out with the help of technology and stored permanently, for example direct air carbon capture and storage (DAC).

According to the impact assessment carried out by the European Commission, Europe will achieve a 75-85% reduction in gross emissions by 2040, which indicates that removals are needed alongside emissions cuts.

The European Commission could make the 2040 target more credible and more measurable by splitting it into three sub-targets: gross emissions, nature-based removals and technical removals. Such an approach has been proposed by think tanks, as well as by a group bringing together more than 100 academics, businesses, non-governmental organisations and research institutions. This approach is also supported by France; it would build on the work done in connection with the 2030 target.

The Scientific Advisory Board has already recommended separating the targets for permanent removals and nature-based removals, noting that targets for these removals would help deliver the potential required. The Scientific Advisory Board has also stressed the importance of international climate action, noting that to make a fair contribution the EU "should aim for the highest possible targets for domestic emissions reductions and sustainable carbon removals", while at the same time promoting "direct emissions reductions outside the EU".

When will the 2040 target be made public?

The European Commission has not given a specific date for publishing the 2040 climate target. In its work programme it states that the European Climate Law will be amended by the end of the first quarter of this year. The member states' environment ministers, who usually negotiate climate targets, will meet on 27 March.

It has been suggested that one of the reasons the 2040 target has not been published is Poland's politics ahead of the elections due in May. Poland currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, which means the Poles will lead the negotiations on the 2040 target. Poland may not wish to be held responsible for setting a very ambitious target... As is well known, initially Poland objected to the 2030 target.

Why does the 2040 climate target matter?

The 2040 target will help determine how steep the emissions reduction curve will be between 2030 and 2050. The steeper the decline, the less carbon will be emitted, helping to avert drastic global warming. It will be a driving force for the European Union's work to increase competitiveness and speed up the energy transition.

Meeting this target will require a great deal of work right across the European economy, including implementing the "green" legislation already in force and delivering the goals of the recently adopted "clean industrial deal".

Other legal reforms may also be needed to align existing legislation with the 2040 climate target, as was already done for the sake of the 2030 target. This work has been entrusted to Teresa Ribera, the EC Executive Vice-President for a "clean, just and competitive" transition.

Her mission letter states: "Once a 90% emissions reduction target for 2040 is enshrined in the European Climate Law, we will need to work closely with all interested and affected parties to prepare a new post-2030 plan that would allow us to reach net zero emissions by mid-century." The Commission will assess this in 2026, climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has announced.

How is the 2040 target linked to the European Union's Nationally Determined Contribution?

The European Union must also submit a 2035 target as part of its updated climate plan under the Paris Agreement — the so-called Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). That outcome will most likely be shaped by the EU's 2040 climate target.

Many countries around the world, the European Union among them, missed the original deadline of February 2025 (by which climate targets for 2035 were to be submitted). The United Nations has given the EU until September 2025 to submit it, ahead of the COP30 UN climate change conference in Brazil.

Agreeing the NDC is a separate process, in which the EU states may be asked to give the "green light" before the plan is submitted by the Council presidency and the European Commission.

Both the 2035 and the 2040 targets are important for setting "a higher bar" for international climate efforts. This matters all the more now that the United States has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, and other countries are being criticised for failing to submit sufficiently ambitious national development targets.

What does the 2040 climate target mean for European industry?

Meeting all the EU's "green" climate targets, including the 2040 target, will require considerable work. When the targets were proposed, renewable energy and electricity sector groups backed them, while pointing out that clean energy and electrification will be needed to achieve them. The construction sector has also stressed the importance of renovation and energy efficiency in meeting the climate targets.

Energy-intensive industries likewise take the view that much remains to be done; the steel industry, for instance, warned that "there is as yet no clear business case for the transition, and investment remains worryingly low". The chemicals industry gave the 2024 target a positive assessment when it was proposed, while stressing that the communication "does not offer concrete and timely solutions to the problems". The aim of the "clean industrial deal" is to provide an industrial strategy to ease these problems.

Despite shifting opinions and certain difficulties arising in the context of possible changes to the European "Green Deal", more than 100 companies and investors have signed a joint letter, organised by the green business organisation Corporate Leaders Group, calling for a stringent 2040 target of at least 90%. Environmental organisations, too, want the EU to go further still, arguing that the bloc should become climate neutral by 2040 in order to contribute its fair share to international climate action.

Sources:
https://tracker.carbongap.org/policy/2040-targets/
https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2024/01/08/dozens-of-organisations-and-scientists-demand-separation-of-eus-2040-climate-targets/
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https://carbon-pulse.com/366208/
https://www.wwf.eu/
https://www.solarpowereurope.org/press-releases/statement-eu-proposes-2040-climate-targets-1
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