Burning cleaner gases
Yet the biggest friction comes from the question of whether other gases should also be considered part of the solution.
“I think it’s clear that electric heat pumps and district heating will play a crucial role – depending on the member state and depending on the region,” said Andreas Guth, policy director at the industry lobby group Eurogas (Andreas Guth). “The real question is to what extent we can also use renewable and low-carbon gases to eventually decarbonise the current use of heat. And that is something that we think is often ignored.”
Such gases include hydrogen – a gas that burns cleanly but is in short supply – and biomethane, a purified form of gas produced when bacteria break down organic waste without oxygen. Some environmental groups fear that the promise of these gases will keep natural gas infrastructure viable.
In Germany, the government almost collapsed over a heating bill that stipulated all new heating systems must receive at least 65% of their energy from renewable sources – meaning it would effectively be banned to install new gas boilers from 2024. After objections from the FDP, the coalition added a number of exemptions. They agreed to stop the installation of fossil fuel boilers in existing buildings once a local municipality has submitted a heating plan, which should be completed by 2028, and left some scope to install traditional boilers if they can be converted to run on hydrogen.
Heating homes with hydrogen would not require dismantling existing gas infrastructure or removing boilers from homes. However, currently, almost all hydrogen is produced from natural gas, also known as fossil gas. Experts are sceptical that enough “green” hydrogen can be produced to satisfy both the needs of the construction industry, which has other solutions, and sectors that absolutely require hydrogen for decarbonisation purposes, such as the steel and shipping industries.
Kevin Kircher believes that hydrogen could be useful as a backup source on the coldest days when high demand for electricity overloads the power grid. “It might not be about installing massive hydrogen pipelines and using hydrogen as the main fuel for heating. Maybe only 5% of all energy used for heating is derived from hydrogen – and we all just have small canisters of hydrogen that we use for a week or two a year.”
The gas industry is urging EU policymakers to refrain from specifying which technologies should be used to decarbonise heating, and instead to take decisions based on local circumstances, particularly by blending hydrogen and biomethane. “We are not claiming that you can decarbonise the building sector by using a lot of natural gas and a small portion of hydrogen,” said Eurogas policy director Andreas Guth. “But it is part of the process.”
However, some analysts worry that leaving the door open to new gas boilers is a risky move that is not worth taking.
“The risk is that we will simply carry on as usual, masked by ‘hydrogen-readiness’, and then in 2040 we will end up saying ‘...oh God, there is no hydrogen or it’s too expensive!’,” said Jan Rosenow, director at the clean energy think-tank Regulatory Assistance Project. “It is being used as a distraction to delay the process, and I fear that in some places this has already been quite a successful tactic.”
Reducing energy demand
Experts also warn against focusing on energy supply without solving the demand problem. According to a 2021 European Commission report, about a third of buildings in Europe were built more than half a century ago, and three-quarters of them are energy-inefficient, meaning a large proportion of buildings are simply wasting energy. By insulating walls and lofts – and installing draught-proof windows and doors to keep out the cold winds – homes will stay warmer for longer. After the initial investment, heating bills decrease, and residents live in healthier and more comfortable conditions.
However, only about 1% of the European building stock is renovated each year. Only 0.2% of EU buildings undergo a deep renovation each year, which allows for energy savings of more than 60%. According to a report by Buildings Performance Institute Europe – a think-tank working towards cleaner buildings – the EU needs to increase this rate 15-fold by 2030 to meet its climate goals.
Citizens also have some influence over heating emissions. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the International Energy Agency published a 10-point plan to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. It found that Europe could reduce gas demand by 7% by turning thermostats down by 1 °C. On average, European homes are heated to 22 °C, but the level required for health – for people without health conditions or older people – is a few degrees cooler. By installing smart meters that regulate temperature, or changing behavioural habits, such as wearing jumpers and slippers indoors, emissions can be reduced even further.
But, as with heat pumps, the problem lies in making changes in millions of individual households, said E3G representative A. Roche. “It’s not one single big thing that can be swapped out. It’s not a machine that can simply be replaced. It’s a series of small devices that, in the end, collectively make up a huge share of energy and emissions.”