In Latvia we often pay attention to what is happening in Hungary, mostly discussing matters that touch on support for Ukraine and the current Hungarian leadership’s “flirtation” with Russia. The situation may soon change, because on 12 April Hungary faces truly historic parliamentary elections that could reshape Hungarian – and possibly all of Europe’s – energy and climate policy. For 16 years now Hungary has been “ruled” by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a deeply controversial figure. His opponent is the leader of the centre-right opposition, Péter Magyar. If he wins the election, Hungary’s continuing dependence on imports of Russian fossil resources may be brought to an end, and the country’s attitude towards Ukraine may change. Climate and energy are not the leading themes of the election campaign, but the scandal that has blown up over electric vehicle battery factories, along with Hungary’s conflict with Ukraine over the oil pipeline, has “raised a storm” in the pre-election period.
The contest sharpens
After a bitter election campaign, the centre-right opposition party Tisza, led by Péter Magyar, looks fairly strong. It has to be said that pollsters’ forecasts differ substantially. Pollsters who support Orbán stress the advantages of the Fidesz party, while others, who are not dependent on the government, indicate that Magyar’s party is in the lead. This means that predicting the election result is highly problematic.
How to break free from Russian fossil resources?
Hungary is one of the three European Union countries with the most pronounced energy dependence on Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Hungarians have considerably increased their dependence on Russian oil supplies, and this has happened despite Europe’s efforts to reduce oil and gas imports from Russia. In February this year Hungary filed a legal claim challenging the European Union’s REPowerEU regulation, which bans imports of Russian resources. Orbán’s government stresses that the regulation threatens Hungary’s energy security. Magyar has promised to double the share of renewable energy in the country by 2040 and to end Hungary’s energy dependence by 2035. It should be noted here, however, that Péter Magyar’s party’s candidate for the post of energy minister was for a long time the head of the Shell group in Hungary. That, of course, prompts the question of whether Hungarians really would begin an active energy transition should Magyar win. Hungary’s dependence on Russian gas, oil and nuclear fuel is very considerable.
The “Russian question” in nuclear energy too
Construction of the Russian-backed Paks II nuclear power plant was delayed by eight years; it began in February this year, when the Russian state company Rosatom officially opened work on the site. In 2024 the European Union did not make the project subject to sanctions. The Hungarian government stresses that the use of nuclear energy is the only way to reach Hungary’s long-term climate neutrality target, and the country’s nuclear ambitions go further still – the state energy company MVM and the American company Westinghouse signed a memorandum on expanding cooperation in the nuclear field, including the installation of small modular reactors (SMRs). This is a technology that has not yet been deployed anywhere in the world.
Conflict over the oil pipeline
Ukraine remains the main theme of the election campaign. As is known, Orbán has accused the Ukrainian president of deliberately blocking the Druzhba pipeline, through which Russian oil is delivered from Ukraine to Hungary. In this way Orbán is of course “unsettling” the Hungarian public ahead of the elections. Ukraine, for its part, points out that the pipeline was damaged as a result of a Russian drone strike. In response, Orbán has planned to block gas exports to Ukraine. In this context it should be noted that Hungary and Slovakia have been temporarily exempted from the ban on importing Russian oil. The rhetoric of the election campaign has become increasingly angry, with Orbán accusing both Ukraine and the European Union of supporting Péter Magyar, which he says amounts to interference in the pre-election process. Reacting to the war in Iran and to swings in the global energy market, Orbán has ordered the police and the army to guard key energy infrastructure, and has also announced new caps on petrol and diesel prices.
Problems with the battery factories
Hungary is rapidly becoming a “flagship” of electric vehicle battery production, driven mainly by large-scale Chinese and South Korean investment and state subsidies. At present 36 battery plants are already operating or under construction in the country, yet this trend has become highly contentious, because the public is worried about tumour-causing chemicals, environmental damage, possible breaches of waste management rules and a lack of transparency. For several years the government has rejected criticism in this area. Documents published in February sharpened the situation, making the battery factories a critical issue in the context of the coming elections. Péter Magyar has announced that he plans to set up an independent body to supervise polluting industries and investment in the battery manufacturing sector. This question has created major problems for Viktor Orbán.
An initiative on a Climate Law
More than 180 non-governmental organisations have urged Hungary to adopt a new climate law, which has been submitted for a 30-day public consultation. The law is intended to prepare the country for the consequences of climate change and includes an emissions reduction programme.
Environmental activists against gas extraction
The Hungarian Ministry of Energy has announced new extraction concessions for the exploration and production of natural gas and crude oil in seven regions of the country. As is known, exploration began at six sites in 2025. Several environmental activist organisations object to these plans. Activists fear that water-intensive shale gas extraction will put additional pressure on protected natural areas that are already suffering from drought caused by climate change.