Canada could expand its market opportunities in Asia in order to squeeze Russia out of the important Chinese timber import market.

Germany, Sweden, Brazil and even Chile, at least in the short term, could be the biggest winners from the tariffs imposed by US President D. Trump on Canadian sawn timber, because as sawn timber prices rise, US builders will feel the full impact of the tariffs.

This comes after US sawn timber prices reached a 30-month high yesterday, climbing to 682 US dollars per thousand board feet (1000 board feet is 2.34 cubic metres), the highest level since the peak of the pandemic. Prices on the domestic market for the pine and spruce sawn timber used in construction, and for southern yellow pine, which is used as a substitute for spruce and pine fuel, have also risen to their highest level in the past year.

Russ Taylor, head of Russ Taylor Global Wood Business & Market Consulting, said in a 3 March interview with the Wall Street Journal: "Every day there are new interpretations of what Trump will do next. The whole timber industry doesn't know what to do. We want to know what the rules of the game are. Right now it is utter chaos."

Wood Central has already reported that the tariffs, which have also hit the steel industry, could add between 35 and 45 thousand dollars to the cost of a newly built home under the worst-case scenario. Even so, analysts, traders and even the sawmills themselves are not sure how far the tariffs will push up the price of "two-by-fours" and wood panels.

While in a tight market the tariffs could be passed on to consumers in full, a slower market could mean that only half of the tariff shows up in prices, R. Taylor noted: "You will simply raise prices until the Canadians come back into the market. That will hurt consumers."

According to Lesprom data Canada accounted for the bulk (84%) of US sawn timber imports last year, ahead of Germany, Sweden, Brazil and Chile at 5.9%, 2.7%, 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. At the same time, Canada, which could face a 52% tariff and duty on all sawn timber brought into the US, is left to redirect its timber flows away from North America and turn to China, Japan and South Korea.

"In China, where Russia supplies almost 68% of softwood sawn timber imports, Canada's share is only 7.5%. If Canadian exporters divert shipments from the US to China, they could upset Russia's dominant position in that market."

The Russian company Lesprom reports on Canada's potential to threaten Russia's dominant position in the Chinese sawn timber market.

On the question of whether the US can "go it alone" and meet demand with domestic timber alone: "The most important thing is that the US needs Canadian sawn timber and OSB panels, while Canada needs the US market for sawn timber and OSB panels," R. Taylor stressed back in January.

"Canada's MDF and particleboard is mainly exported to the US (98% of total exports), while plywood exports to the US are small – 300 million square metres, making up around 3% of US consumption."