(...) Although Deutsche Bank is the first of the major banks to forecast an impending economic downturn, both private and bank investors agree with the DB group's bleak outlook. According to Bloomberg Markets Live survey data (the survey was conducted from 29 March to 1 April), 48% of investors expect the US to enter a recession next year. A further 21% expect the downturn to begin in 2024, while 15% of the 525 respondents predict that a recession will occur as early as this year.

As the pandemic continues, Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts additional pressure on already rapidly rising consumer prices, and the isolation of China could disrupt supply chains, meaning the economic outlook is currently uncertain. Where there are clouds, there is a chance of rain, or in this case, the start of a recession.