The European Union can cut its fossil gas consumption by as much as 50% by 2030 and phase out the fuel entirely by 2050, all while maintaining security of supply and current levels of industrial production without disruptive changes to policy, according to the energy policy think tank Agora Energiewende.

A report titled “The EU Gas Exit” states that essential measures to help phase out gas include increasing the share of renewable energy to 70% of total energy production by 2030 and 85% by 2040 (in 2021, this share was approximately 35%). Other elements necessary for moving away from fossil gas include improving energy efficiency and the electrification of process heat in industrial sectors, building insulation, as well as installing 40 million heat pumps by 2030 and 80 million by 2040, Agora points out. The power sector could initially phase out fossil gas the fastest, driven by a rapid increase in the use of solar and wind energy. Other sectors will require more time, as industry will first rely on improving energy efficiency and direct electrification, with green hydrogen only becoming a primary fuel later on. Nevertheless, “in the industrial sector, the sub-sectors of chemicals, iron and steel, as well as machinery and transport equipment, could produce fuel without fossil gas by 2040,” writes the think tank.

The European Union’s goal is to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which means that by that time, the use of oil, gas, and coal must largely come to an end. Although the bloc has implemented a market mechanism—emissions trading—to reduce emissions in power generation, energy-intensive industries, transport, and buildings, it has not set end dates for fossil fuels on the path to climate neutrality. Phasing out gas use will also significantly affect existing infrastructure. Another recently published Agora report states that more than 90% of Germany’s distribution system will become obsolete once the country reaches its climate neutrality goal by 2045.

The think tank Agora Energiewende also proposed an EU greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2040, for which negotiations within the bloc are only just beginning. The think tank believes the EU should aim for a 90% reduction compared to the 1990s. The current EU target is to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030.