Less than a year remains until the next federal elections in Germany. As we already know, the three-party coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz is becoming increasingly fragmented and, one might say, less influential following the federal budget crisis and painful defeats in several state elections. A break-up is even possible, although that would not automatically mean early elections – Germany has strict rules and a “high bar” in this respect. The current coalition's disagreements and the weak economy are creating uncertainty. There is concern about the future of the country's most renowned industries – steel production, automotive manufacturing and the chemical industry. These sectors face fierce international competition, and pressure to cut greenhouse gas emissions is also mounting.

What can we expect in the coming weeks?

• Will Germany's governing coalition hold together until the next elections? Tensions over the budget are rising; much as in Latvia, German MPs have begun the final negotiations on Germany's 2025 budget. These must be concluded by the end of November, and they may trigger further disputes within the coalition government. Bild Zeitung has already reported that the FDP could use a failure of these negotiations as grounds for leaving the alliance before the end of the term.
  
  
• Government deliberations on fundamental changes to Germany's electricity market, which aim to create an electricity system based entirely on renewable energy sources, are gathering pace. In mid-October the Ministry for Economic Affairs plans to submit to other ministries a concept paper on the so-called planned capacity mechanism. This concept favours a “combined” approach, in which electricity supply would be secured by hydrogen-ready gas power plants, as well as by flexible consumers, suitable storage and innovation. Consultations on the “Power Plant Safety Act”, which aims to guarantee security of electricity supply at all times in the future, will close on 23 October.
  
  
• Germany and most of Central Europe this summer experienced devastating floods – first in the west, then in the south and, finally, in the east. To better protect residents and infrastructure from this “new reality” and from many other adverse consequences of climate change and future climate risks, Germany's Ministry for the Environment has drawn up and submitted a draft “Climate Change Adaptation Strategy”. The corresponding adaptation act stipulates that the government must develop this strategy with “measurable targets.” Consultations with stakeholders and the federal states will run until 22 October. The aim is to give the strategy the “green light” for approval by the government by December.

Betting on carbon capture measures – the German government will also shortly agree on a carbon management strategy, which will set out a framework for technologies for capturing, storing, transporting and using CO₂. The already published draft states that carbon capture in natural sinks (forests, for example) will not be enough to balance out the remaining greenhouse gas emissions after 2045, when Germany aims to become climate neutral. Technological means are therefore needed to reach the target (for example, direct air capture – this technology (DAC) is a key climate solution. It captures CO₂ from the air using renewable energy alone). Approval by the German cabinet is expected shortly. German NGOs have, however, called for strict limits on the use of carbon capture and storage in the country.

September's events in brief:

• The so-called populists are making gains in Germany. In September, thanks to an anti-immigration campaign, the right-wing party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) won the most votes in an election for the first time. The party openly denies that global warming is caused by humans. AfD won the most votes in the election in Thuringia, a former East German state, while in Saxony and Brandenburg it came second. The other parties in these three states are now weighing up possible coalitions, which is a difficult task since the parties have ruled out cooperation with AfD. Yet even though AfD may not come to power directly, from opposition the party can hold back progress towards climate neutrality in the three eastern German states. East Germany as a whole stands to benefit “disproportionately” from the energy transition – so German policy experts emphasise.
  
  
• “Extremely difficult” climate finance – given Germany's constrained federal budget, government officials indicated that it will be hard to meet the previously set target of providing six billion euros a year from the state budget to developing countries in the form of climate finance by 2025. “I am not saying it is unachievable, but it is extremely difficult,” says Jochen Flasbarth, State Secretary at the Ministry for Development. The recent budget crisis means that reaching the target will become “very difficult”, and the need to attract more private finance is being stressed.
  
  
• Germany's environment minister has promised tighter safeguards to prevent fraud in emissions reduction schemes abroad, after a special session of parliament discussed the recently exposed fake climate projects in China. In connection with suspected cases of fraud, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) has suspended 45 suspicious climate projects in Asia.
  
  
• The trend towards eating vegetables. The volume of vegetable growing in Germany has not fallen, even though yields of many crops have declined. The number of people who say they do not eat meat has not risen. The proportion of vegans and vegetarians has barely changed in recent years, according to the latest nutrition report. Presenting the report, however, agriculture minister Cem Özdemir noted that a great deal is being done to cater for flexitarians – people who eat meat from time to time but deliberately cut down on their consumption. Many food producers in Germany are increasingly offering meat alternatives.