According to a forecast by the Pellervo Economic Research Institute (PTT), the upward trend in timber production will drive strong demand for domestic timber.
"Since timber imports are unlikely to be sufficient to meet demand, the need for domestic timber in Finland will remain high," PTT's specialists believe.
"Forest owners could see another interesting year ahead," PTT notes in its forest sector forecast. This year and next, demand for wood in the forest sector will grow, which will also keep demand strong on the domestic market. As a result, both felling volumes and timber prices will rise. Gross cash revenue from private forests is forecast to reach a new record high, considerably exceeding 3 billion euros. The rise in pulpwood prices will, however, be steady.
"The upheavals of the past couple of years on the timber market are behind us, timber prices are levelling out and the pulpwood market has found its balance," says forest sector economist Olli Korhonen.
Overall, wood consumption in Finland's forest sector will rise by around 2% this year. Next year it will increase by a further four per cent, as production volumes grow in both the wood products and pulp industries. Timber imports will not be sufficient to meet demand, so the need for domestic wood will remain very substantial.
In 2025, meanwhile, harvesting will increase by around 5%, because, as noted above, demand for Finland's forest resources is rising sharply while the availability of foreign timber is limited. Harvesting is forecast to continue increasing by around 2% next year.
Overall, in 2025 the volume of timber trade in both the sawlog and pulpwood sectors will increase by around 2% compared with last year. In Finland, the volume of timber trade will continue to rise by around 2% in 2025.
Wood prices are still rising
PTT estimates that this year the average annual price of roundwood will rise more moderately than last year, namely by a little under 4%. Unlike in recent years, the nominal change in the average price of spruce sawlogs will be slightly larger than that of pine sawlogs. The average price of birch roundwood will also rise slightly compared with last year. Roundwood prices in Finland will continue to rise next year as well, with the average nominal price of roundwood increasing by around 2%.
"The trend in pulpwood prices is clearly levelling out compared with recent years, pointing to a new market balance. This year the average annual price of roundwood will rise by around 4%, and next year by around 2%," emphasises Paula Horne, PTT's research director.
Timber sales revenue is expected to reach record highs
Demand for domestic timber has also been reflected in timber sales revenue, which in real terms has already reached a record high. Last year, nominal gross cash revenue from private forests rose by a tenth to just under 2.9 billion euros, as average timber prices and trade volumes both increased. In real terms, that is to say adjusted for inflation, revenue was slightly below the phenomenally successful year of 2007, when the record high was set.
This year and next, forest owners' revenue from timber sales will continue to grow as harvesting increases. In Finland, prices and sales volumes will rise moderately. As a result, revenue in real terms will also reach a record high.
This year, timber sales revenue will increase by a tenth to around 3.2 billion euros. Next year, revenue will rise by a further 8% to around 3.4 billion euros.
Growth in the export value of the forest sector
According to PTT's estimates, the export value of Finland's forest sector will grow both this year and next. The main driver is paperboard products. Sawn timber exports will also increase, as construction in Europe is no longer declining so sharply and the global supply of sawn timber is nevertheless fairly limited. It should be stressed that US tariffs are disrupting global trade, hampering exports and may increase competition in markets that are important to Finland.
"Despite import tariffs, exports of forest sector products to the United States will continue, because the country needs them. Tariffs do, however, push up product prices and reduce consumption of them. Finland's forest sector exports to the United States will therefore fall to some extent. That said, the outlook overall is highly uncertain," notes sector economist Marjo Maidella.